Wednesday AM in Grain and Oilseeds 11/25
Hello friends
  • First notice day for CBOT and a host of other markets is Friday.  If you are in December futures, look to roll out today.
  • Thanksgiving holiday hours begin this evening.  CBOT grains and livestock will close until Friday morning. Almost everything else will trade overnight on Wednesday and close for a short period on Thursday, reopening Thursday evening.
  • Reuters is reporting that Chinese soybean importers and processors are working to cancel deals for U.S. cargoes of soybeans booked for shipment in December and January, according to three trade sources. This follows similar reports from AgriCensus yesterday. The strong rally in soybean futures has caused crush margins to collapse in China.  One of the sources indicated those trying to wash out shipments are “small private soybean importers” who “bought cargoes but did not  price in the futures market.” One of the sources also noted a 30-cent dive in spot export basis at the U.S. gulf since early this month. Knee jerk, this is bearish and sign of a top.  On the other hand, this is a small amount of product and we are hearing the demand for product beyond Jan is real and going nowhere.
  • John Deere earnings were solid amidst the global pandemic.  They project an improving ag economy in 2021.

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This Week In Grain

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This Week In Grain – This Week in Grain (T.W.I.G.) is a weekly grain and oilseed commentary newsletter designed to keep grain market participants on the cutting edge, so they can hedge or speculate with more confidence and precision.

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About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)